Lab 11

Author

Erin Cagle

Lab 11

1. Read in the Data

cv_states <- as.data.frame(data.table::fread(("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/us-states.csv")))

state_pops <- as.data.frame(data.table::fread(("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/associated-data/master/us_census_data/us_census_2018_population_estimates_states.csv")))

state_pops$abb <- state_pops$state
state_pops$state <- state_pops$state_name
state_pops$state_name <- NULL

cv_states_pop <- merge(cv_states, state_pops, by= "state")

2. Look at the Data

dim(cv_states_pop)
[1] 58094     9
head(cv_states_pop)
    state       date fips   cases deaths geo_id population pop_density abb
1 Alabama 2023-01-04    1 1587224  21263      1    4887871    96.50939  AL
2 Alabama 2020-04-25    1    6213    213      1    4887871    96.50939  AL
3 Alabama 2023-02-26    1 1638348  21400      1    4887871    96.50939  AL
4 Alabama 2022-12-03    1 1549285  21129      1    4887871    96.50939  AL
5 Alabama 2020-05-06    1    8691    343      1    4887871    96.50939  AL
6 Alabama 2021-04-21    1  524367  10807      1    4887871    96.50939  AL
tail(cv_states_pop)
        state       date fips  cases deaths geo_id population pop_density abb
58089 Wyoming 2022-09-11   56 175290   1884     56     577737    5.950611  WY
58090 Wyoming 2022-08-21   56 173487   1871     56     577737    5.950611  WY
58091 Wyoming 2021-01-26   56  51152    596     56     577737    5.950611  WY
58092 Wyoming 2021-02-21   56  53795    662     56     577737    5.950611  WY
58093 Wyoming 2021-08-22   56  70671    809     56     577737    5.950611  WY
58094 Wyoming 2021-03-20   56  55581    693     56     577737    5.950611  WY
str(cv_states_pop)
'data.frame':   58094 obs. of  9 variables:
 $ state      : chr  "Alabama" "Alabama" "Alabama" "Alabama" ...
 $ date       : IDate, format: "2023-01-04" "2020-04-25" ...
 $ fips       : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
 $ cases      : int  1587224 6213 1638348 1549285 8691 524367 1321892 1088370 1153149 814025 ...
 $ deaths     : int  21263 213 21400 21129 343 10807 19676 16756 16826 15179 ...
 $ geo_id     : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
 $ population : int  4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 ...
 $ pop_density: num  96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 ...
 $ abb        : chr  "AL" "AL" "AL" "AL" ...

The merged file has 58094 observations of 9 variables. All variables are in the correct format, except the date is stored as an IDate instead of a date structure. The merged file has saved the data in alphabetical order with Alabama being the head of data and Wyoming being the tail of the data. Within each state, the data is not sorted by date either.

3. Format the Data

# format the date
cv_states_pop$date <- as.Date(cv_states_pop$date, format="%Y-%m-%d")

# format the state and state abbreviation (abb) variables
state_list <- unique(cv_states_pop$state)
cv_states_pop$state <- factor(cv_states_pop$state, levels = state_list)
abb_list <- unique(cv_states_pop$abb)
cv_states_pop$abb <- factor(cv_states_pop$abb, levels = abb_list)

### FINISH THE CODE HERE 
# order the data first by state, second by date
ordered_states <- cv_states_pop[order(cv_states_pop$state, cv_states_pop$date), ]

# Confirm the variables are now correctly formatted
str(ordered_states)
'data.frame':   58094 obs. of  9 variables:
 $ state      : Factor w/ 52 levels "Alabama","Alaska",..: 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
 $ date       : Date, format: "2020-03-13" "2020-03-14" ...
 $ fips       : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
 $ cases      : int  6 12 23 29 39 51 78 106 131 157 ...
 $ deaths     : int  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
 $ geo_id     : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
 $ population : int  4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 4887871 ...
 $ pop_density: num  96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 ...
 $ abb        : Factor w/ 52 levels "AL","AK","AZ",..: 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
head(ordered_states)
       state       date fips cases deaths geo_id population pop_density abb
1029 Alabama 2020-03-13    1     6      0      1    4887871    96.50939  AL
597  Alabama 2020-03-14    1    12      0      1    4887871    96.50939  AL
282  Alabama 2020-03-15    1    23      0      1    4887871    96.50939  AL
12   Alabama 2020-03-16    1    29      0      1    4887871    96.50939  AL
266  Alabama 2020-03-17    1    39      0      1    4887871    96.50939  AL
78   Alabama 2020-03-18    1    51      0      1    4887871    96.50939  AL
tail(ordered_states)
        state       date fips  cases deaths geo_id population pop_density abb
57902 Wyoming 2023-03-18   56 185640   2009     56     577737    5.950611  WY
57916 Wyoming 2023-03-19   56 185640   2009     56     577737    5.950611  WY
57647 Wyoming 2023-03-20   56 185640   2009     56     577737    5.950611  WY
57867 Wyoming 2023-03-21   56 185800   2014     56     577737    5.950611  WY
58057 Wyoming 2023-03-22   56 185800   2014     56     577737    5.950611  WY
57812 Wyoming 2023-03-23   56 185800   2014     56     577737    5.950611  WY
# Inspect the range values for each variable. What is the date range? The range of cases and deaths?
summary(ordered_states)
           state            date                 fips           cases         
 Washington   : 1158   Min.   :2020-01-21   Min.   : 1.00   Min.   :       1  
 Illinois     : 1155   1st Qu.:2020-12-06   1st Qu.:16.00   1st Qu.:  112125  
 California   : 1154   Median :2021-09-11   Median :29.00   Median :  418120  
 Arizona      : 1153   Mean   :2021-09-10   Mean   :29.78   Mean   :  947941  
 Massachusetts: 1147   3rd Qu.:2022-06-17   3rd Qu.:44.00   3rd Qu.: 1134318  
 Wisconsin    : 1143   Max.   :2023-03-23   Max.   :72.00   Max.   :12169158  
 (Other)      :51184                                                          
     deaths           geo_id        population        pop_density       
 Min.   :     0   Min.   : 1.00   Min.   :  577737   Min.   :    1.292  
 1st Qu.:  1598   1st Qu.:16.00   1st Qu.: 1805832   1st Qu.:   43.659  
 Median :  5901   Median :29.00   Median : 4468402   Median :  107.860  
 Mean   : 12553   Mean   :29.78   Mean   : 6397965   Mean   :  423.031  
 3rd Qu.: 15952   3rd Qu.:44.00   3rd Qu.: 7535591   3rd Qu.:  229.511  
 Max.   :104277   Max.   :72.00   Max.   :39557045   Max.   :11490.120  
                                                     NA's   :1106       
      abb       
 WA     : 1158  
 IL     : 1155  
 CA     : 1154  
 AZ     : 1153  
 MA     : 1147  
 WI     : 1143  
 (Other):51184  
range(ordered_states$date)
[1] "2020-01-21" "2023-03-23"
range(ordered_states$cases)
[1]        1 12169158
range(ordered_states$deaths)
[1]      0 104277

Now that the variables are correctly formatted, I will investigate the ranges of these variables. The dates range from Jan 21, 2020 to March 3, 2023 which is just over 3 years. The range of cases is from 0 to 12,169,158. Finally, the range of deaths is from 0 to 104,277.

4. Add new cases, new deaths, and correct for outliers

for (i in 1:length(state_list)) {
  cv_subset = subset(ordered_states, state == state_list[i])
  cv_subset = cv_subset[order(cv_subset$date),]

  # add starting level for new cases and deaths
  cv_subset$new_cases = cv_subset$cases[1]
  cv_subset$new_deaths = cv_subset$deaths[1]

  ### FINISH THE CODE HERE
  for (j in 2:nrow(cv_subset)) {
    cv_subset$new_cases[j] = cv_subset$cases[j] - cv_subset$cases[j-1]
    cv_subset$new_deaths[j] = cv_subset$deaths[j] - cv_subset$deaths[j-1]
  }

  # include in main dataset
  ordered_states$new_cases[ordered_states$state==state_list[i]] = cv_subset$new_cases
  ordered_states$new_deaths[ordered_states$state==state_list[i]] = cv_subset$new_deaths
}

recent <- ordered_states |> dplyr::filter(date >= "2021-06-01")

library(ggplot2)
library(plotly)

# Inspect outliers in new_cases using plotly
p1<-ggplot(recent, aes(x = date, y = new_cases, color = state)) + geom_line() + geom_point(size = .5, alpha = 0.5)
ggplotly(p1)
p1<-NULL # to clear from workspace

p2<-ggplot(recent, aes(x = date, y = new_deaths, color = state)) + geom_line() + geom_point(size = .5, alpha = 0.5)
ggplotly(p2)
p2<-NULL # to clear from workspace

There are a few cases in which states have a negative value for new cases. This happens in Florida, Colorado, Tennessee, Kentucky, and a few others. There are also instances of negative values for new deaths in some states. Massachusetts, California, Colorado, and a few others have negative values for new deaths at some point in the plot. These values are not possible and need to be fixed.

# set negative new case or death counts to 0
recent$new_cases[recent$new_cases<0] = 0
recent$new_deaths[recent$new_deaths<0] = 0

# Recalculate `cases` and `deaths` as cumulative sum of updated `new_cases` and `new_deaths`
for (i in 1:length(state_list)) {
  cv_subset = subset(recent, state == state_list[i])

  # add starting level for new cases and deaths
  cv_subset$cases = cv_subset$cases[1]
  cv_subset$deaths = cv_subset$deaths[1]

  ### FINISH CODE HERE
  for (j in 2:nrow(cv_subset)) {
    cv_subset$cases[j] = cv_subset$new_cases[j] + cv_subset$new_cases[j-1]
    cv_subset$deaths[j] = cv_subset$new_deaths[j] + cv_subset$new_cases[j-1]
  }
  # include in main dataset
  recent$cases[recent$state==state_list[i]] = cv_subset$cases
  recent$deaths[recent$state==state_list[i]] = cv_subset$deaths
}

# Smooth new counts
recent$new_cases = zoo::rollmean(recent$new_cases, k=7, fill=NA, align='right') %>% round(digits = 0)
recent$new_deaths = zoo::rollmean(recent$new_deaths, k=7, fill=NA, align='right') %>% round(digits = 0)

p2<-ggplot(recent, aes(x = date, y = new_deaths, color = state)) + geom_line() + geom_point(size = .5, alpha = 0.5)
ggplotly(p2)
p2<-NULL

After recalculating and smoothing the data it is much easier to identify the trends in the graph, and all data looks like it could have been a reasonable value.

5. Add additional variables

# add population normalized (by 100,000) counts for each variable
recent$per100k =  as.numeric(format(round(recent$cases/(recent$population/100000),1),nsmall=1))
recent$newper100k =  as.numeric(format(round(recent$new_cases/(recent$population/100000),1),nsmall=1))
recent$deathsper100k =  as.numeric(format(round(recent$deaths/(recent$population/100000),1),nsmall=1))
recent$newdeathsper100k =  as.numeric(format(round(recent$new_deaths/(recent$population/100000),1),nsmall=1))

# add a naive_CFR variable = deaths / cases
recent = recent |> mutate(naive_CFR = round((deaths*100/cases),2))

# create a `cv_states_today` variable
cv_states_today = subset(recent, date==max(recent$date))

6. Explore scatterplots using plotly

# pop_density vs. cases
cv_states_today |> 
  plot_ly(x = ~pop_density, y = ~cases, 
          type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color = ~state,
          size = ~population, sizes = c(5, 70), marker = list(sizemode='diameter', opacity=0.5))
# filter out "District of Columbia"
cv_states_today_filter <- cv_states_today %>% filter(state!="District of Columbia")

# pop_density vs. cases after filtering
cv_states_today_filter %>% 
  plot_ly(x = ~pop_density, y = ~cases, 
          type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color = ~state,
          size = ~population, sizes = c(5, 70), marker = list(sizemode='diameter', opacity=0.5))
# pop_density vs. deathsper100k
cv_states_today_filter %>% 
  plot_ly(x = ~pop_density, y = ~deathsper100k,
          type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color = ~state,
          size = ~population, sizes = c(5, 70), marker = list(sizemode='diameter', opacity=0.5))
# Adding hoverinfo
cv_states_today_filter %>% 
  plot_ly(x = ~pop_density, y = ~deathsper100k,
          type = 'scatter', mode = 'markers', color = ~state,
          size = ~population, sizes = c(5, 70), marker = list(sizemode='diameter', opacity=0.5),
          hoverinfo = 'text',
          text = ~paste( paste(state, ":", sep=""), paste(" Cases per 100k: ", per100k, sep="") , 
                         paste(" Deaths per 100k: ", deathsper100k, sep=""), sep = "<br>")) %>%
  layout(title = "Population-normalized COVID-19 deaths (per 100k) vs. population density for US states",
                  yaxis = list(title = "Deaths per 100k"), xaxis = list(title = "Population Density"),
         hovermode = "compare")

7. Explore scatterplot trend interactively using ggploty and geom_smooth

p <- ggplot(cv_states_today_filter, aes(x=pop_density, y=deathsper100k, size=population)) + geom_point() + geom_smooth()
ggplotly(p)

While not totally clear, it appears that areas with smaller population density tended to have larger quantities of death per 100k. However, there is a group with lower population density that have deaths per 100k close to or at 0.

8. Multiple line chart

# Line chart for naive_CFR for all states over time using `plot_ly()`
plot_ly(recent, x = ~date, y = ~naive_CFR, color = ~state, type = "scatter", mode = "lines")
# Line chart for Florida showing new_cases and new_deaths together
#lab asked to use add_layer function... function does not exist
recent %>% filter(state=="Florida") %>% plot_ly(x = ~date, y = ~new_cases, type = "scatter", mode = "lines") %>% add_trace(x = ~date, y = ~new_deaths, type = "scatter", mode = "lines") |> layout(yaxis2 = list(overlaying = "y", side = "right"))

The peak in new cases comes before the peak in new deaths. It appears that as new cases are falling and heading towards a low, the peak in new deaths occurs.

9. Heatmaps

# Map state, date, and new_cases to a matrix
library(tidyr)
cv_states_mat <- recent %>% select(state, date, new_cases) %>% dplyr::filter(date>as.Date("2021-06-1"))
cv_states_mat2 <- as.data.frame(pivot_wider(cv_states_mat, names_from = state, values_from = new_cases))
rownames(cv_states_mat2) <- cv_states_mat2$date
cv_states_mat2$date <- NULL
cv_states_mat2 <- as.matrix(cv_states_mat2)

# Create a heatmap using plot_ly()
plot_ly(x=colnames(cv_states_mat2), y=rownames(cv_states_mat2),
             z=~cv_states_mat2,
             type="heatmap",
             showscale=T)
# Repeat with newper100k
cv_states_mat <- recent %>% select(state, date, newper100k) %>% dplyr::filter(date>as.Date("2021-06-15"))
cv_states_mat2 <- as.data.frame(pivot_wider(cv_states_mat, names_from = state, values_from = newper100k))
rownames(cv_states_mat2) <- cv_states_mat2$date
cv_states_mat2$date <- NULL
cv_states_mat2 <- as.matrix(cv_states_mat2)

plot_ly(x=colnames(cv_states_mat2), y=rownames(cv_states_mat2),
             z=~cv_states_mat2,
             type="heatmap",
             showscale=T)
# Create a second heatmap after filtering to only include dates every other week
filter_dates <- seq(as.Date("2021-06-01"), as.Date("2021-11-01"), by="2 weeks")

cv_states_mat <- recent %>% select(state, date, new_cases) %>% filter(date %in% filter_dates)
cv_states_mat2 <- as.data.frame(pivot_wider(cv_states_mat, names_from = state, values_from = new_cases))
rownames(cv_states_mat2) <- cv_states_mat2$date
cv_states_mat2$date <- NULL
cv_states_mat2 <- as.matrix(cv_states_mat2)

# Create a heatmap using plot_ly()
plot_ly(x=colnames(cv_states_mat2), y=rownames(cv_states_mat2),
             z=~cv_states_mat2,
             type="heatmap",
             showscale=T)

California, New York, Florida and Texas all stand out. These states were some of the only ones to have the very light ends of the color spectrum which indicates they had some of the highest numbers of new cases. When looking at the data by 100k, a few different states start to appear ,brighter. Vermont, Rhode Island and some other less populated states start to appear in those higher ends of new cases. New York still has a large number of new cases. When filtering down to only dates every 2 weeks, Florida, California, and Texas arise as the states with the highest number of cases.

10.

### For specified date

pick.date = "2021-10-15"

# Extract the data for each state by its abbreviation
cv_per100 <- recent %>% filter(date==pick.date) %>% select(state, abb, newper100k, cases, deaths) # select data
cv_per100$state_name <- cv_per100$state
cv_per100$state <- cv_per100$abb
cv_per100$abb <- NULL

# Create hover text
cv_per100$hover <- with(cv_per100, paste(state_name, '<br>', "Cases per 100k: ", newper100k, '<br>', "Cases: ", cases, '<br>', "Deaths: ", deaths))

# Set up mapping details
set_map_details <- list(
  scope = 'usa',
  projection = list(type = 'albers usa'),
  showlakes = TRUE,
  lakecolor = toRGB('white')
)

# Make sure both maps are on the same color scale
shadeLimit <- 125

# Create the map
fig <- plot_geo(cv_per100, locationmode = 'USA-states') %>% 
  add_trace(
    z = ~newper100k, text = ~hover, locations = ~state,
    color = ~newper100k, colors = 'Purples'
  )
fig <- fig %>% colorbar(title = paste0("Cases per 100k: ", pick.date), limits = c(0,shadeLimit))
fig <- fig %>% layout(
    title = paste('Cases per 100k by State as of ', pick.date, '<br>(Hover for value)'),
    geo = set_map_details
  )
fig_pick.date <- fig

#############
### Map for today's date

# Extract the data for each state by its abbreviation
cv_per100 <- cv_states_today %>%  select(state, abb, newper100k, cases, deaths) # select data
cv_per100$state_name <- cv_per100$state
cv_per100$state <- cv_per100$abb
cv_per100$abb <- NULL

# Create hover text
cv_per100$hover <- with(cv_per100, paste(state_name, '<br>', "Cases per 100k: ", newper100k, '<br>', "Cases: ", cases, '<br>', "Deaths: ", deaths))

# Set up mapping details
set_map_details <- list(
  scope = 'usa',
  projection = list(type = 'albers usa'),
  showlakes = TRUE,
  lakecolor = toRGB('white')
)

# Create the map
fig <- plot_geo(cv_per100, locationmode = 'USA-states') %>% 
  add_trace(
    z = ~newper100k, text = ~hover, locations = ~state,
    color = ~newper100k, colors = 'Purples'
  )
fig <- fig %>% colorbar(title = paste0("Cases per 100k: ", Sys.Date()), limits = c(0,shadeLimit))
fig <- fig %>% layout(
    title = paste('Cases per 100k by State as of', Sys.Date(), '<br>(Hover for value)'),
    geo = set_map_details
  )
fig_Today <- fig


### Plot together 
subplot(fig_pick.date, fig_Today, nrows = 2, margin = .05)

Based on the lack of color on the map of the most recent data, there were more cases per 100k across the entire United States on Oct 15, 2021 than on Oct 10 2023. This makes sense as Oct 2021 was closer to the height of the pandemic than Oct 2023. Although, there still new strains of COVID continuing to create new cases, it may be that people are less concerned about it and reporting has declined as people have deemed “the pandemic is over.”